MQ 3503 · XNA → ORD

departs 5:52 PM CT · arrives 7:47 PM CT

Your aircraft is N202NN (E170), coming in as MQ 3503 from ORD: in the air, landing about 5:15 PM CT, 31 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3503 · XNA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?