MQ 3540 · ABQ → PHX

took off 12:37 PM MT · expected to land 1:29 PM MT (scheduled 12:25 PM MT → 2:00 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at ABQ that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3540 · ABQ → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?