MQ 3554 · JAX → ORD

departs 5:48 PM ET · arrives 7:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from JAX are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.33 in

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3554 · JAX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?