MQ 3562 · ORD → PVD

took off 3:55 PM CT · expected to land 6:47 PM ET (scheduled 3:13 PM CT → 6:32 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?

70% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PVD?

LIVE

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ PVD usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

PVD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3562 · ORD → PVD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVD?