MQ 3564 · ORD → ROA

took off 1:51 PM CT · expected to land 4:10 PM ET (scheduled 1:27 PM CT → 4:14 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ROA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ROA?

LIVE

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3564 · ORD → ROA

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROA?