MQ 3564 · ROA → ORD

departs 4:50 PM ET · arrives 5:41 PM CT

Your aircraft is N744DB (E170), coming in as MQ 3564 from ORD: in the air, landing about 4:07 PM ET, 35 min before departure.

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from ROA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ROA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

ORD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3564 · ROA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?