MQ 3695 · ORD → BIS

took off 10:32 AM CT · expected to land 12:24 PM CT (scheduled 10:13 AM CT → 12:46 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BIS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BIS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at BIS that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ BIS usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BIS (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.88 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3695 · ORD → BIS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BIS?