MQ 3750 · SRQ → ORD

took off 1:05 PM ET · expected to land 2:34 PM CT (scheduled 12:48 PM ET → 2:38 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.66 in

ORD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3750 · SRQ → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?