MQ 3794 · BFL → PHX

departs 12:48 PM PT · arrives 3:19 PM MT

Your aircraft is N253NN (E170), coming in as MQ 3794 from PHX: landed 12:13 PM PT.

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BFL

Weather at each end

BFL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3794 · BFL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?