MQ 3859 · TPA → BNA

departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM CT

Your aircraft is N332JG (E170), coming in as MQ 3792 from BNA: in the air, landing about 4:39 PM ET, 45 min before departure.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 767 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling767 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.28 in

BNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3859 · TPA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?