MQ 3873 · MRY → PHX

departs 4:07 PM PT · arrives 7:07 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Cloud base down to 1,267 ft forecast at MRY that day

Weather at each end

MRY (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,267 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3873 · MRY → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?