MQ 3877 · AUS → DFW

departs 6:53 PM CT · arrives 8:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

76% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
45%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3877 · AUS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?