MQ 3953 · LIT → PHX

departs 2:12 PM CT · arrives 4:23 PM MT

Your aircraft is N226NN (E170), coming in as MQ 3953 from PHX: landed 1:48 PM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from LIT are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

LIT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3953 · LIT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?