MQ 3953 · PHX → LIT

departs 9:47 AM MT · arrives 1:33 PM CT

Your aircraft is N226NN (E170), coming in as MQ 3662 from EUG: landed 8:21 AM MT.

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LIT?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into LIT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

LIT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3953 · PHX → LIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIT?