MQ 3984 · DFW → RAP

took off 12:35 PM CT · expected to land 1:22 PM MT (scheduled 11:13 AM CT → 12:38 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RAP?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
82%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 56 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at RAP that day

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ RAP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

RAP (destination) Gusts56 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.94 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3984 · DFW → RAP

Odds over time

How late will it get to RAP?