MQ 4005 · MSN → ORD

departs 8:39 PM CT · arrives 9:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at MSN that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.06 in

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4005 · MSN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?