MQ 4022 · ORD → RDU

departs 4:28 PM CT · arrives 7:31 PM ET

Your aircraft is N221NN (E170), coming in as MQ 3974 from MDT: landed 2:54 PM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4022 · ORD → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?