MQ 4023 · ORD → RIC

departs 8:44 AM CT · arrives 11:47 AM ET

Your aircraft is N312BT (E170), coming in as MQ 3751 from HPN: landed 7:03 AM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling967 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4023 · ORD → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?