MQ 4047 · ORD → RIC

took off 2:11 PM CT · expected to land 4:44 PM ET (scheduled 1:49 PM CT → 4:52 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RIC?

LIVE

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4047 · ORD → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?