MQ 4078 · SEA → PHX

departs 11:31 AM PT · arrives 3:18 PM MT

Your aircraft is N339HG (E170), coming in as MQ 4078 from PHX: landed 11:02 AM PT.

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at SEA that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4078 · SEA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?