MQ 4115 · PHX → STS

departs 2:34 PM MT · arrives 3:50 PM PT

Your aircraft is N234JW (E170), coming in as MQ 4232 from SMF: landed 12:28 PM MT.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STS?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ STS is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at STS that day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

STS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling9,167 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4115 · PHX → STS

Odds over time

How late will it get to STS?