MQ 4137 · ORD → AVL

took off 1:54 PM CT · expected to land 4:09 PM ET (scheduled 1:28 PM CT → 4:15 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AVL?

LIVE

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into AVL at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 767 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AVL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4137 · ORD → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?