MQ 4138 · DFW → XNA

departs 9:08 PM CT · arrives 10:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at XNA that day

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ XNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

XNA (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4138 · DFW → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?