MQ 4189 · MSO → ORD

departs 1:04 PM MT · arrives 5:22 PM CT

Your aircraft is N315NH (E170), coming in as MQ 4189 from ORD: landed 12:13 PM MT.

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO

Weather at each end

MSO (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4189 · MSO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?