MQ 4189 · ORD → MSO

took off 9:51 AM CT · expected to land 11:39 AM MT (scheduled 9:54 AM CT → 12:49 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSO more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSO (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4189 · ORD → MSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSO?