MQ 4196 · RST → ORD

departs 12:32 PM CT · arrives 1:52 PM CT

Your aircraft is N227NN (E170), coming in as MQ 4196 from ORD: in the air, landing about 12:23 PM CT, 5 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

76% chance · ±0 pts +46 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
59%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at RST that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ RST usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RST (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.41 in

ORD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4196 · RST → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?