MQ 4225 · PHX → CRQ

departs 11:30 AM MT · arrives 4:49 PM -03

Your aircraft is N317TB (E170), coming in as MQ 4038 from TUL: landed 10:05 AM MT.

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at CRQ more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CRQ?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into CRQ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

CRQ (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4225 · PHX → CRQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to CRQ?