MQ 4232 · SMF → PHX

took off 10:05 AM PT · expected to land 12:29 PM MT (scheduled 10:00 AM PT → 12:58 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4232 · SMF → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?