MQ 4283 · ORD → AVP

departs 2:59 PM CT · arrives 5:53 PM ET

Your aircraft is N203NN (E170), coming in as MQ 3364 from DTW: landed 1:22 PM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at AVP more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AVP?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AVP

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AVP (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4283 · ORD → AVP

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVP?