OH 5280 · MCI → PHL

departs 1:35 PM CT · arrives 5:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.71 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5280 · MCI → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?