OH 5400 · PHL → ORF

departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 9:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5400 · PHL → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?