OO 3138 · SEA → RNO

took off 3:50 PM PT · landed 5:21 PM PT (scheduled 3:31 PM PT → 5:23 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RNO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3138 · SEA → RNO

Odds over time

How late did it get to RNO?