QX 2249 · SAN → SBP

departs 10:27 PM PT · arrives 11:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBP?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Arrivals into SBP at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBP (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling8,300 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2249 · SAN → SBP

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBP?