QX 2253 · PDX → SBA

departs 5:30 PM PT · arrives 7:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PDX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ PDX is busy at that time

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at PDX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2253 · PDX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?