QX 2287 · SAN → PHX

departs 1:42 PM PT · arrives 4:06 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2287 · SAN → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?