QX 2316 · SEA → EUG

departs 4:47 PM PT · arrives 6:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EUG?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 4pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

EUG (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2316 · SEA → EUG

Odds over time

How late will it get to EUG?