QX 2337 · SEA → SBA

departs 6:55 AM PT · arrives 9:25 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ QX's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SEA are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2337 · SEA → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?