QX 2345 · SEA → SBA

departs 3:08 PM PT · arrives 5:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2345 · SEA → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?