QX 2354 · BIL → SEA

departs 5:08 PM MT · arrives 6:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BIL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ BIL usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

BIL (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.18 in

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2354 · BIL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?