QX 2378 · SEA → BZN

departs 6:56 AM PT · arrives 9:46 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BZN?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 1.33333 mi forecast at BZN that day

↑ QX's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SEA are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

BZN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility1.33333 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2378 · SEA → BZN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BZN?