QX 2410 · SEA → GPI

departs 3:33 PM PT · arrives 8:05 PM -05

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at GPI more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GPI?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GPI

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

GPI (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2410 · SEA → GPI

Odds over time

How late will it get to GPI?