QX 2411 · GPI → SEA

departs 8:29 PM -05 · arrives 7:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GPI

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

GPI (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2411 · GPI → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?