QX 2416 · ANC → FAI

departs 8:05 AM AKT · arrives 9:23 AM AKT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAI?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ QX's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ANC

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into FAI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

FAI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2416 · ANC → FAI

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAI?