QX 2475 · STS → LAX

departs 6:56 PM PT · arrives 8:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at STS that day

Weather at each end

STS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2475 · STS → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?