QX 2493 · SBP → SEA

departs 10:03 AM PT · arrives 12:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from SBP are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SBP (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling8,300 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2493 · SBP → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?