Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 100 DEPARTURE NOT REPORTED YET (THE FAA SEES FLIGHTS FROM ABROAD ONCE THEY NEAR US AIRSPACE) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, November 2 Today

UA 100 · SYD → IAH

departs 9:36 AM AEDT · arrives 7:33 AM CT

Your aircraft is N51104 (B789), coming in as UA 101 from IAH: landed 6:31 AM AEDT.

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SYD

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SYD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 100 · SYD → IAH

Odds over time