Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1034
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 1034 · BUR → SMF
departs 8:50 PM PT · arrives 10:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 19%
Wed 11/4 19%
Thu 11/5 34%
Fri 11/6 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.