Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1145
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 1145 · BUR → OAK
departs 8:15 PM PT · arrives 9:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 46%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 36%
Fri 11/6 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.