Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 1458 · DAL → SAT
departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 11:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 38%
Wed 11/4 50%
Thu 11/5 42%
Fri 11/6 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at DAL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SAT that day
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.