Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 1466 · DAL → SMF
departs 9:32 PM CT · arrives 11:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 44%
Fri 11/6 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
69%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at DAL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.